Wednesday, May 11, 2011

A billion here, a billion there; it soon adds up to real money

If anyone thought my back of an envelope calculations on November 20, 2010 Dream on; it's to late to wake up now, the nightmare is about to start were a bit over the top they should take a look at this article published in The Irish Times on May 7, 2011, written by Morgan Kelly the highly respected professor of economics at University College Dublin.

Kelly calculates that Ireland's debts will exceed €250 billion by 2014, equivalent to more than €120,000 per worker; or 160 per cent of gross national product.  He goes on to say -
"Economists have a rule of thumb that once its national debt exceeds its national income, a small economy is in danger of default (large economies, like Japan, can go considerably higher). Ireland is so far into the red zone that marginal changes in the bailout terms can make no difference: we are going to be in the Hudson."
As I said at the time - "Simply put, the Irish cannot repay that size of loan."
So far the UK have saved £6 Billion through government spending cuts and thrown £12 Billion at propping up the Euro currency.  There's more to come...
Best Wishes
Will